THE FOOD IMPORT – INTERNATIONAL TOURISM NEXUS IN CROATIA: AN APPLICATION OF THE ARLD AND NARDL APPROACH AND CAUSALITY
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5937/ekoPolj2102275SKeywords:
food import, tourism, ARDL, NARDL, causality, CroatiaAbstract
The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between food import dependency and the international tourist arrivals in Croatia during the period spanning 1969-2018. In this paper, we provide empirical evidence on the above hypothesis by detecting the causality between foods imports represented as various food products and international tourism arrivals, that suit as a proxy for tourism consumption. The study method was able to capture symmetries in the relationship between some food import products and tourism, known as autoregressive-distributed lags, but not for all imported food items designed for this study. Since an asymmetric analysis, in such cases, requires the use of nonlinear models, we use nonlinear models and find evidence of asymmetric cointegration. For almost two decades before the global COVID-19 crisis, we conclude, Croatias food imports grew rapidly, and these imports appear to be mainly driven by exports of services linked to pervasive tourism expansion.
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References
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3. Belisle, F.J. (1984). Food Production and Tourism in Jamaica: Obstacles to Increasing Local Food Supplies to Hotels. The Journal of Developing Areas, 19(1), 1-20. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/4191314 (November 30, 2020). 4. Belisle, F.J. (1984). Tourism and food imports: The case of Jamaica. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 32(4), 819-842, https://www.jstor.org/stable/11536685
5. Blagojević, M., Papić, M., & Garabinović, D. (2020). Business intelligence and open data: The possibilities for the derivation of valuable information in tourism domain. Hotel and Tourism Management, 8(2), 113–124. https://doi.org/10.5937/menhottur2002113B
6. Burton, M., & Young, T. (1996). The impact of BSE on the demand for beef and other meats in Great Britain. Applied Economics, 28(6), 687-693. https://doi.org/10.1080/000368496328434
7. Fischer, C. (2004). The influence of immigration and international tourism on the demand for imported food products. Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica, Section C — Food Economics, 1(1), 21-33, https://doi.org/10.1080/16507540410024489
8. Dickey, D.A., & Fuller, W.A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 74(366), 427–431. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531
9. Elliott G., Rothenberg T.J., & Stock, J.H. (1996). Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root. Econometrica, 64(4), 813-836. https://doi.org/10.2307/2171846
10. Fischer, C., & Gil-Alana, L.A. (2009). The nature of the relationship between international tourism and international trade: the case of German imports of Spanish wine. Applied Economics, 41(11), 1345-1359. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840601019349
11. Mazilu, M., Toma, E., & Lazăr, I. (2014). The Economic Complex Tourism Relationship. Proceedings of the International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM. Book, 5(1), 711-718.
12. Narayan P.K., (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979-1990. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500278103
13. Njoya, E. T., & Nikitas, A. (2019). Assessing agriculture–tourism linkages in Senegal: A structure path analysis. GeoJournal, 85(1469–1486), 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-019-10033-1
14. Orsini, K. (2017). What drives Croatias high import dependence. Economic Brief, 29, 1-20. https://doi.org/10.2765/28837
15. Pesaran, H.M., & Shin, Y. (1999). An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. In: Storm, S. (Ed.), Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium (Econometric Society Monographs), Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 371-413. https://doi.org/10.1017/CCOL521633230.011
16. Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R.J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289- 326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
17. Pirani, S.I., & Arafat, H.A. (2016). Interplay of food security, agriculture and tourism within GCC countries. Global Food Security, 9, 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2016.05.002
18. Pratt, S., Suntikul, W., & Dorji, U. (2018). Economic sustainability? Examining the linkages and leakages between agriculture and hotels in B hutan. International Journal of Tourism Research, 20(5), 626-636. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2211
19. Richards, G. (2003). Gastronomy: an essential ingredient in tourism production and consumption? In Tourism and gastronomy, 17-34.
20. Şahin, L. (2019). Food Trade Dependency Index for EU28 Countries in the Context of Food Security. Ekonomista, 6, 760-768. http://www.ekonomista.info.pl.
21. Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework. In Festschrift in honor of Peter Schmidt, 281-314, Springer, New York, NY.
22. Statistical Yearbook of the Republic of Croatia, various issues, Retrieved from https://www.dzs.hr/eng/publication/stat_year.htm.
23. The worlds economic database; DBnomics database, Retrieved from https://db.nomics.world (September 20, 2020).
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Published
2021-06-24
How to Cite
Šergo, Z., & Gržinić, J. (2021). THE FOOD IMPORT – INTERNATIONAL TOURISM NEXUS IN CROATIA: AN APPLICATION OF THE ARLD AND NARDL APPROACH AND CAUSALITY. Economics of Agriculture, 68(2), 275–290. https://doi.org/10.5937/ekoPolj2102275S
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